The recent massacre has escalated diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to a series of retaliatory actions including visa cancellations and the recall of diplomats. India has also suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty and closed its border with Pakistan. Following these developments, gunfire has erupted between Indian and Pakistani troops along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who previously claimed a stabilization of the security situation in Kashmir after years of insurgency, has pledged retribution. He is set to convene a security committee meeting with military and security officials to discuss the situation. Srinath Raghavan, an expert on International Relations, noted that India’s current posture makes it difficult to avoid military strikes in response to terrorism.
Heightened tensions have been observed since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, historically linked to reduced violence between the two nuclear-armed nations. Former President Donald Trump commented on the matter, suggesting that India and Pakistan would ultimately resolve their issues independently, acknowledging the long-standing tensions between the two countries.
Raghavan pointed out that military actions in India are typically determined by the elected government, yet the military holds significant operational independence in deciding target responses and execution methods. This situation implies a lack of restraint on military actions, as they only require the government’s approval to proceed with planned operations. As developments unfold, the dynamics of political and military decision-making remain crucial in shaping the future course of India-Pakistan relations.
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