The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Saturday, with forecasters surprised by the unusual pattern of activity. The season started with Hurricane Beryl becoming the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic in June, followed by a quiet period from mid-August to early September – the usual peak time. This was the first time since 1968 that no named storms formed during these weeks. However, activity picked up in late September and hurricanes Helen and Milton caused significant damage.
Factors that were predicted to make the season busy included record-high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the potential development of La Niña, a pattern that can fuel hurricanes. Although ocean temperatures remained high, La Niña did not develop strongly, leading to the surprising lull in activity. Other factors, such as the location of Africa’s tropical monsoon season and the Madden Julian oscillation, also played a role.
Despite the midseason break, the 2024 season set several records, with five hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. and seven hurricanes forming in the Atlantic after September 25 – the most in recorded history. Climate change likely made hurricanes Helen and Milton worse, with rapid intensification and increased rainfall intensity attributed to rising global temperatures.
Research will continue throughout the winter to better understand the factors at play during this unpredictable hurricane season and improve future forecasts. Overall, while the number of named storms may not change significantly due to climate change, a higher proportion of named storms are expected to become hurricanes, with more reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity.
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