A new study published in The Lancet Public Health journal estimates that deaths from extreme heat in Europe are projected to rise sharply in the coming years, far outpacing a slowdown in cold-related deaths. Currently, cold weather causes the majority of temperature-related deaths in Europe, but extreme heat is expected to become a more lethal challenge, particularly in southern Europe and areas with elderly populations.
The analysis, based on a 3°C increase in global warming, predicts an additional 55,000 deaths annually by 2100 if climate change is not addressed. This would be a 13.5% increase from the current 407,500 deaths caused by extreme temperatures in Europe each year. The study identified hotspots where people will be most affected in the future.
With climate change leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, experts are calling for targeted policies to protect vulnerable populations from temperature extremes. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has highlighted the need for international cooperation to address extreme heat and limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Policy interventions implemented over the past two decades have saved thousands of lives in Europe, but more action is needed to prevent further deaths from extreme heat. Beyond fatalities, extreme heat is also linked to a higher risk of miscarriage for women working in hot conditions and can exacerbate mental health issues.
The study underscores the importance of addressing climate change and developing strategies to protect populations most at risk from extreme temperatures. Failure to act could have far-reaching consequences on health, the environment, and infrastructure.
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